*Spring flowers amidst the first thaw, Veliky Novgorod (Spring 2017)*

**Some History of Statistics:**

David Freedman, “From Association to Causation: Some Remarks on the History of Statistics,” (1999)

David A. Freedman, “Statistical Models and Shoe Leather,” (1991)

**Methods Guide:**

**Comparing Big Ideas:**

A video introduction: Intro to Game Theory

A video introduction: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

A video introduction: Median Voter Thereom

Advanced applications of the Median Voter Thereom

A video introduction: The Condorcet Method

Historical examples of Condorcet cycling from

**Gaming the Vote**by William Poundstone (New York: Hill and Wang, 2008)

**Causality:**

A video introduction: What is Causality?

Analysis of Field Experiments Shiny App from Donald Green and Alan Gerber (designed by Alexander Coppock) with reference to “Getting out the Latino Vote: How Door-to-Door Canvassing Influences Voter Turnout in Rural Central California” by Michelson (2003)

African Borders as Sources of Natural Experiments: Promise and Pitfalls

Nobel Prize in Economics Winner (2019) Esther Duflo on using social experiments to fight poverty

Durably Reducing Transphobia: A Field Experiment on Door-to-Door Canvassing by Broockman and Kalla (2016)

Estimating the Impact of the Hajj: Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering by Clingingsmith, Khwaja and Kremer (2009)

Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a India-Wide Randomized Policy Experiment by Duflo and Chattopadhyay (2004)

The State of State Capacity : A Review of Concepts, Evidence and Measures

Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research

A video introduction: The Normal Distribution and the 68-95-99.7 Rule

A video introduction: Mode, Median, Mean, Range, and Standard Deviation

A video introduction: Central Limit Theorem

A video introduction: Confidence Intervals and the Margin of Error

A video introduction: How to Calculate the Standard Error of the Mean and Why It’s Important (Central Limit Theorem)

An example: Confidence Interval Example

A clarification: Standard Deviation vs. Standard Error

Simple and Multiple Linear Regression in Python

A Beginner’s Guide to Linear Regression

Regression Analysis (OLS method) – in R – but more nice pictures illustrating the geometric properties of regression

Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States by Graham and Svolik (2019)

The Demise of Mexico’s One-Party Dominant Regime: Elite Choices and the Masses in the Establishment of Democracy by Magaloni (2005)

What It Feels Like to Be Bad at Math

Math Prefresher for Political Scientists

How to Read Political Science: A Guide in Four Steps from Amelia Hoover Green, Drexel University (2013)

Paragraphs and Topic Sentences

Three Templates for Introductions to Political Science Articles by Andrew Little (2016)