PS 3: Intro to Quantitative Methods (Fall 2019)

Spring flowers amidst the first thaw, Veliky Novgorod (Spring 2017)

Discussion

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Introduction

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Some History of Statistics:

• David Freedman, “From Association to Causation: Some Remarks on the History of Statistics,” (1999)

• David A. Freedman, “Statistical Models and Shoe Leather,” (1991)

• Thomas S. Coleman, “Causality in the Time of Cholera: John Snow as a Prototype for Causal Inference,” (2019)

Methods Guide:

• Research Design Guide (2017)

• Alan Gerber and Donald Green, “Field Experiments and Natural Experiments,” (2011)

Comparing Big Ideas:

• Jared Diamond and James A. Robinson (eds.), “Natural Experiments of History,” (2010)

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Deductive Models of Politics

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• A video introduction: Intro to Game Theory

• A video introduction: The Prisoner’s Dilemma

• A video introduction: Median Voter Thereom

• Advanced applications of the Median Voter Thereom

• A video introduction: The Condorcet Method

• Historical examples of Condorcet cycling from Gaming the Vote by William Poundstone (New York: Hill and Wang, 2008)

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Causality

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Causality:

• A video introduction: What is Causality?

• Causation and Explanation in Social Science

• The Metaphysics of Causation

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Research Designs

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• Analysis of Field Experiments Shiny App from Donald Green and Alan Gerber (designed by Alexander Coppock) with reference to “Getting out the Latino Vote: How Door-to-Door Canvassing Influences Voter Turnout in Rural Central California” by Michelson (2003)

• Voter Information Campaigns and Political Accountability: Cumulative Findings from a Pre-Registered Meta-Analysis of Coordinated Trials

• African Borders as Sources of Natural Experiments: Promise and Pitfalls

• Nobel Prize in Economics Winner (2019) Esther Duflo on using social experiments to fight poverty

• An Introduction to Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)

• Durably Reducing Transphobia: A Field Experiment on Door-to-Door Canvassing by Broockman and Kalla (2016)

• Estimating the Impact of the Hajj: Religion and Tolerance in Islam’s Global Gathering by Clingingsmith, Khwaja and Kremer (2009)

• Women as Policy Makers: Evidence from a India-Wide Randomized Policy Experiment by Duflo and Chattopadhyay (2004)

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Conceptualization and Measurement

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• The State of State Capacity : A Review of Concepts, Evidence and Measures

• Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research

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Descriptive Statistics

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• A video introduction: The Normal Distribution and the 68-95-99.7 Rule

• A video introduction: Mode, Median, Mean, Range, and Standard Deviation

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Inferential Statistics

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• A video introduction: Central Limit Theorem

• A video introduction: Confidence Intervals and the Margin of Error

• A video introduction: How to Calculate the Standard Error of the Mean and Why It’s Important (Central Limit Theorem)

• An example: Confidence Interval Example

• A clarification: Standard Deviation vs. Standard Error

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Linear Regression

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Simple and Multiple Linear Regression in Python

Linear Regression in Python

A Beginner’s Guide to Linear Regression

Regression Analysis (OLS method) – in R – but more nice pictures illustrating the geometric properties of regression

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Induction Meets Deduction (Examples)

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• Democracy in America? Partisanship, Polarization, and the Robustness of Support for Democracy in the United States by Graham and Svolik (2019)

• The Demise of Mexico’s One-Party Dominant Regime: Elite Choices and the Masses in the Establishment of Democracy by Magaloni (2005)

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Math

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Math & Coding Resources:

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What It Feels Like to Be Bad at Math

Getting Started in Python

Getting Started in R

Math Prefresher for Political Scientists

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Reading & Writing

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Reading Resources:

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How to Read Political Science: A Guide in Four Steps from Amelia Hoover Green, Drexel University (2013)

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Writing Resources:

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Chicago Manual of Style

Research Writing Calculator

Developing A Thesis

Thesis Statement Creator

Thesis and Purpose Statements

Developing a Thesis Statement

The Architecture of Arguments

Using Outlines

Paragraphs and Topic Sentences

Using Evidence

Three Templates for Introductions to Political Science Articles by Andrew Little (2016)